JAGS Simulation with Multivariate State-Space Model: The G7 on Food Security

The 49th G7 summit was held recently in Japan. Ukraine was one of the most critical issues at the meeting; most of the session topic was related to problems stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One of the problems, aforementioned is food security. Because of the war, energy prices have been up. And that has stimulated food inflation. Of course,Continue reading “JAGS Simulation with Multivariate State-Space Model: The G7 on Food Security”

Bootstrap Intervals: Understanding the Gender-based Over-qualified Rates

Most of the time, if there is a recession in an economy, it leads to a high unemployment rate, and then it triggers the over-qualified employment rate; Because people would feel financially insecure and they’d accept the first job that comes their way regardless of how the job suit for their skills or education levels.Continue reading “Bootstrap Intervals: Understanding the Gender-based Over-qualified Rates”

Predicting the Real USD/TRY Rates with MARS

The ongoing debate recently in Turkey is that the Turkish government has suppressed US Dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rates (USD/TRY) to prevent economic turmoil. Many authorities in the business, especially exporters, think that the USD/TRY parity should be in the range of 24-25 Turkish Lira. To look through that, we will predict for the whole yearContinue reading “Predicting the Real USD/TRY Rates with MARS”

Food Inflation: Comparing with Interactive Chart of {ggiraph}

According to authorities, up to 205 million are facing food insecurity in about 45 countries. Besides global warming that causes poor rainfall performance, another strong reason to worry about the issue is the Russian invasion of Ukraine which causes trade-related restrictions. I’ve just wondered how this reflects on food inflation. To do that, we willContinue reading “Food Inflation: Comparing with Interactive Chart of {ggiraph}”

Forecasting Disney Stock Prices as the Latest Earnings Beat Estimates

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) recently announced significant labor cuts to ease shareholders’ pressure on reducing costs due to rising streaming investment. These cuts and some structural changes in the company have provided some boost to stock prices. We will examine these price changes based on earnings per share (EPS) and their consensus forecasts. But these EPSs are announcedContinue reading “Forecasting Disney Stock Prices as the Latest Earnings Beat Estimates”

Explanatory Analysis of the XGBoost Model for Budget Deficits of U.S.

The debt ceiling was always an issue in the United States. As of today, the national government debt has reached the debt ceiling, which is $31.4 trillion. The authorities have warned of chaotic consequences if Congress no longer approves the debt ceiling. The U.S. government has managed an annual deficit of approximately $1 billion sinceContinue reading “Explanatory Analysis of the XGBoost Model for Budget Deficits of U.S.”

The Falling of ARK Innovation ETF: Forecasting with Boosted ARIMA Regression Model

During the pandemic, the stock prices almost doubled, but their trends have recently declined. One of the reasons for that might be the interest rates. To examine this, we will take a consideration ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is a long-term growth capital by investing mostly in tech companies. First, we will create our datasets.Continue reading “The Falling of ARK Innovation ETF: Forecasting with Boosted ARIMA Regression Model”

Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime

While the US midterm election escalated, the dollar’s performance weakened; especially this situation happened against the Asian currencies. South Korean won(KRW) is the best performer among them. The Chinese yuan(CNY) was behind its counterparts because of their aggressive public health measures related to the zero-COVID protocol. Let’s add the Japanese yen(JPY) and Malaysian ringgit(MYR) toContinue reading “Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime”

The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Wealth: Modeling with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)

Recently, I read a tweet that reports children who grow up in poor conditions earn much less as adults than those with better conditions. I believe one of the best ways to check that is to compare childhood education participation rates with wealth in related countries; to do that, I will use early childhood educationContinue reading “The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Wealth: Modeling with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)”

Modeling the Extinction of Species with SVM-Kernel

In the last article, we analyzed carbon emissions and the effects that created them. This time I want to look into another important environmental issue, animal biodiversity; by animals, I mean mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians. The metric we are going to be interested in is the living planet index which measures the changeContinue reading “Modeling the Extinction of Species with SVM-Kernel”