Explanatory Analysis of the XGBoost Model for Budget Deficits of U.S.

The debt ceiling was always an issue in the United States. As of today, the national government debt has reached the debt ceiling, which is $31.4 trillion. The authorities have warned of chaotic consequences if Congress no longer approves the debt ceiling. The U.S. government has managed an annual deficit of approximately $1 billion sinceContinue reading “Explanatory Analysis of the XGBoost Model for Budget Deficits of U.S.”

The Falling of ARK Innovation ETF: Forecasting with Boosted ARIMA Regression Model

During the pandemic, the stock prices almost doubled, but their trends have recently declined. One of the reasons for that might be the interest rates. To examine this, we will take a consideration ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is a long-term growth capital by investing mostly in tech companies. First, we will create our datasets.Continue reading “The Falling of ARK Innovation ETF: Forecasting with Boosted ARIMA Regression Model”

Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime

While the US midterm election escalated, the dollar’s performance weakened; especially this situation happened against the Asian currencies. South Korean won(KRW) is the best performer among them. The Chinese yuan(CNY) was behind its counterparts because of their aggressive public health measures related to the zero-COVID protocol. Let’s add the Japanese yen(JPY) and Malaysian ringgit(MYR) toContinue reading “Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime”

The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Wealth: Modeling with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)

Recently, I read a tweet that reports children who grow up in poor conditions earn much less as adults than those with better conditions. I believe one of the best ways to check that is to compare childhood education participation rates with wealth in related countries; to do that, I will use early childhood educationContinue reading “The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Wealth: Modeling with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)”

Modeling the Extinction of Species with SVM-Kernel

In the last article, we analyzed carbon emissions and the effects that created them. This time I want to look into another important environmental issue, animal biodiversity; by animals, I mean mammals, birds, fish, reptiles, and amphibians. The metric we are going to be interested in is the living planet index which measures the changeContinue reading “Modeling the Extinction of Species with SVM-Kernel”

Housing Markets Down: Hierarchical Time Series

For a long time, everybody in Turkey complains about how far the house and rent prices are up. It seems the same situation is true all over the world. This is called the pandemic housing boom in the USA. But this might’ve been coming to the end, according to some authorities. To check this argument,Continue reading “Housing Markets Down: Hierarchical Time Series”

CO2 Emissions Comparing and Modeling for Global Warming

Recently, I watched the new Predator movie, Pray, and I loved it. Hence, I’ve fallen into the Predators series, especially the first two movies, again. The Predators in the movie would choose warm planets to hunt because their vision capabilities are based on infrared thermal, which allows them to see heat signatures. Carbon dioxide emissionsContinue reading “CO2 Emissions Comparing and Modeling for Global Warming”

Mismanaged Plastic Pollution: Web-Scraping, Tidy Modeling, and Variable Importance

Plastic wastes are one of the most dominant pollution factors in the environment as we live in an era where modern industries exist. The most dangerous part of this kind of pollution is mismanaged plastic waste, which ends up mixing into the ocean in the end. Our World in Data, which we’ll be taking theContinue reading “Mismanaged Plastic Pollution: Web-Scraping, Tidy Modeling, and Variable Importance”

Food Crisis Analysis and, Forecasting with Neural Network Autoregression

The war between Russia and Ukraine has affected the global food supply other than many vital things. Primarily cereal crop products have been affected the most because the imports have been provided to the world mainly through Ukraine and Russia. Let’s check the situation we’ve mentioned for G20 countries. We will get a look atContinue reading “Food Crisis Analysis and, Forecasting with Neural Network Autoregression”

Modeling with Interaction Terms, and Waffle Chart for Comparing: Immigration Flow to the West

There has been a massive debate about the refugee crisis in Turkey for a long time. Turkish people blame immigrants (mostly from Syria) for the worsening economy, and they believe that the immigrants are in wealthy conditions while they themselves suffer from bad economic conditions. I want to check the accuracy of these claims. First,Continue reading “Modeling with Interaction Terms, and Waffle Chart for Comparing: Immigration Flow to the West”