Explanatory Analysis of the XGBoost Model for Budget Deficits of U.S.
The debt ceiling was always an issue in the United States. As of today, the national government debt has reached the debt ceiling, which is $31.4 trillion. The authorities have warned of chaotic consequences if Congress no longer approves the debt ceiling. The U.S. government has managed an annual deficit of approximately $1 billion since…
The Falling of ARK Innovation ETF: Forecasting with Boosted ARIMA Regression Model
During the pandemic, the stock prices almost doubled, but their trends have recently declined. One of the reasons for that might be the interest rates. To examine this, we will take a consideration ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which is a long-term growth capital by investing mostly in tech companies. First, we will create our datasets.…
Asia Against Dollar: Forecasting with Modeltime
While the US midterm election escalated, the dollar’s performance weakened; especially this situation happened against the Asian currencies. South Korean won(KRW) is the best performer among them. The Chinese yuan(CNY) was behind its counterparts because of their aggressive public health measures related to the zero-COVID protocol. Let’s add the Japanese yen(JPY) and Malaysian ringgit(MYR) to…
The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Wealth: Modeling with Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART)
Recently, I read a tweet that reports children who grow up in poor conditions earn much less as adults than those with better conditions. I believe one of the best ways to check that is to compare childhood education participation rates with wealth in related countries; to do that, I will use early childhood education…
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