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Continue reading →: Nested Forecasting: Analyzing the Relationship Between the Dollar and Stock Market TrendsThe prevailing opinion is that because countries are exporting more goods to the US than it exports to them, resulting in a trade deficit. In return for their exports, these countries receive US dollars, which they often use to purchase US government bonds and stocks. Over time, this process contributes…
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Continue reading →: Predicting the NASDAQ 100 with Hyperparameter TuningPressure on the markets has intensified ahead of the Wednesday deadline for trade deals. We will model monthly Nasdaq 100 data with the Federal Funds Effective Rate and the Unemployment Rate. We will use Boosted trees with hyperparameter tuning. According to the model, it would be better to wait until…
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Continue reading →: Predicting Gold Prices: Backtesting of ML ModelsFitch projects a decline of about 30% in gold in 2026. Easing the trade war and the Israel-Iran conflict may support this idea. We will project how the prices could go by the end of the year. We will use the modeltime.resample package for forecasting modeling. According to the Prophet…
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Continue reading →: Understanding the Link Between Uncertainty and Imports by glmnetAccording to the graph below, suggested by Fernando Leibovici, the increase in uncertainty that began in late 2024 aligns with a rise in imports, indicating that US importers accelerated their purchases as a precaution against expected tariff increases or supply chain disruptions. When we model the variables with the glmnet engine, we can see that this impact…

